Automotive Revolution – Perspectives towards 2030

Der Umsatz der AutoIndustrie kann bis 2030 auf 6,7 billion dollars 2030 steigen – neue Mobilitätsangebote und Konnektivitätsdienste als Motor.

With growth in emerging markets, rapid emergence of new technologies, changing consumer preferences around sustainability policies and ownership, today’s economies are changing dramatically. Digitization, increasing automation and new business models have revolutionized other industries and automotive will be no exception. 

These forces are giving rise to four disruptive technology-driven trends in the automotive sector: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification and connectivity.

Most industry players and experts agree that the four trends will reinforce and accelerate each other, and that the automotive industry is poised for disruption. Given the widespread perception that game-changing disruption is already on the horizon, there is still no coherent perspective on how the industry will look in 10 to 15 years as a result of these trends. 

To that end, our eight key perspectives on the “2030 automotive revolution” aim to provide views on what kind of changes are coming and how they will affect traditional vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, potential new players, regulators, consumers, markets and markets. Automotive value chain.

The aim of this study is to make the imminent changes more tangible. Thus based on our current understanding, the forecast should be interpreted as an estimate of the most likely assumptions in all four trends. 

They are certainly not deterministic in nature but should help industry players better prepare for uncertainty by discussing possible future states.

Despite the shift to shared mobility, vehicle unit sales will continue to grow, but at a slower rate of about 2 percent per year.

Overall global car sales will continue to grow, but the annual growth rate is expected to slow from 3.6 percent over the past five years to around 2 percent by 2030. This decline will be largely due to macroeconomic factors and the rise of new mobility services. Like car sharing and e-hailing.

Detailed analysis suggests that dense areas with a large, established vehicle base are fertile ground for these new mobility services, and many cities and suburbs in Europe and North America fit this profile. New mobility services may result in a decline in private-vehicle sales, but this decline is likely to be offset by increased sales in shared vehicles that need to be replaced more frequently due to greater use and related wear and tear.

The remaining driver of growth in global car sales is overall positive macroeconomic developments, including